What is Statistical Value?
Statistical Value is my attempt to find a unified statistical metric to assess Quarterbacks. There are a lot of such statistics that are thrown out in conversation when comparing Quarterback A to Quarterback B; from basic statistics such as yards, TDs and passer rating, to more modern and advanced creations like Total QBR and Football Outsider statistics.
I see merit in all these statistics, admittedly some more than others. Take Passer Rating for instance – still used by just about everybody, despite the fact it’s a highly flawed system that overvalues some statistics and completely ignores others. But it isn’t without use; it remains arguably the best “30,000 foot view” of a QB’s performance. Everybody knows anything near 100 or above is very good, and anything near 70 or below is pretty poor. The problem is there’s a whole lot of nuance that goes on in between, and in short sample sizes it can be pretty misleading.
Then there’s Total QBR. The theory behind this statistic is much more sound than passer rating, as each play is being dissected and diagnosed by people watching “the tape”. It’s still very mysterious though and can’t account for variables such as the level of defense a QB is playing, something that Football Outsiders do take into account when working out their DVOA metrics.
I believe every statistic tells its own chapter, but none manage the whole story. My goal is to unite all of them (at least, everything I deem to be valuable – both basic and advanced), to form a single score. All of the numbers are normalized, averaged and crunched down to eventually represent a score out of 10. Because they are averaged, every QB is effectively scored against each other, and not some mythical “perfect score”.
Here are the final Statistical Value scores from the 2017 regular season: